Global Energy Advisory – 24th October 2014

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

Yemen Chaos on All Fronts

Yemen is by far our biggest oil and gas red flag this year, and the past month has seen the situation here reach a critical point. Weeks of protests by Houthi and then fighting between Houthi and rival forces in the capital Sanaa left over 200 people dead. This is a complicated conflict that has divided the Yemen security forces, half of which have sided with the Houthi. A peace deal has since temporarily ended the fighting, but sporadic, targeted attacks by the Houthi against their political enemies continue, while al-Qaeda-linked forces continue to attack Houthi and government forces.

Adding to the chaos, we have separatists in the south seeking to secede from Yemen’s north and calling on the government to evacuate all soldiers and civil servants from the region before the end of November. Also included in their demands is the immediate halting of oil and gas exports by foreign companies operating in the region. The halt in exports is intended to buy time for the separatists to appoint new technicians and set up a system for diverting revenues to a new “state bank”.

Brazil Campaign Revelations

Several polls indicate that the two candidates for the 26 October second round of presidential voting in Brazil remain tied, and Petrobras scandals are taking their toll on incumbent President Dilma Rousseff. The situation, which includes ongoing testimony regarding corruption…