Oil prices fall into bear market on rising supply
Potential impact of Iran sanctions on oil prices
The Schork Report Publisher Stephen Schork on the outlook for oil.
Oil prices fell to multi-month lows on Friday as global supply increased and investors worried about the impact on fuel demand from of lower economic growth and trade disputes.
Benchmark Brent crude oil fell to its lowest since early April, down more than 18 percent since reaching four-year highs at the beginning of October. Brent was 15 cents a barrel lower at $70.50 by 0925 GMT, down more than 3 percent for the week and more than 14 percent this quarter.
U.S. light crude oil was 25 cents lower at $60.42, down 4.3 percent this week and off more than 20 percent since early October, putting it officially in bear-market territory.
“There is no slowing down the bear train,” said Stephen Brennock, analyst at London brokerage PVM Oil. “Instead, the energy complex has extended a rout driven by swelling global supplies and a softening demand outlook.
“There is now a sense of inevitability that the European crude benchmark is poised to revisit the $60s per barrel.”
Oil peaked in October on concerns that U.S. sanctions on Iran that came into force this week would deprive the oil market of substantial volumes of crude, draining inventories and bringing shortages in some regions.
But other big oil producers, such as Saudi Arabia, Russia and shale producers in the United States, have increased output steadily, more than compensating for lost Iranian barrels.
The United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia are all now pumping at or near record highs, producing more than 33 million barrels per day (bpd), a third of the world's oil.
The U.S. sanctions, meanwhile, are unlikely to cut supply as much as expected. Washington has granted exemptions to Iran's biggest buyers, allowing them to buy limited amounts of oil for at least another six months.
China National Petroleum Corp said it was still taking oil from Iranian fields in which it has stakes.
Washington has said it wants to force Iranian oil exports down to zero, but Bernstein Energy now expects “Iranian exports will average 1.4 million to 1.5 million bpd,” during the exemption period, about half the volume in mid-2018.
“As OPEC exports continue to rise, inventories continue to build, which is putting downward pressure on oil prices,” Bernstein said. “A slowdown in the global economy remains the key downside risk to oil.”
A glut in the refining sector, where a wave of unsold gasoline has pulled profit margins into negative territory, may also lead to a slowdown in new crude orders as refiners scale back operations.
(Reporting by Christopher Johnson in LONDON and Henning Gloystein in SINGAPORE Editing by David Goodman)